Olgu aluseks teaduslik uurimus või arvamusküsitlus, kaldub meedia registreerima iga väiksemat muutust olulise, suundamuutva ja epohhiloovana. Sotsioloogia nime all kipuvad kõige paremini “müüma” trendiuuringud, sotsiaalajalugu või sotsiaalbelletristika – sõnavõtud lumehelbekeste põlvkonnast demograafiliste väljavaadeteni, ajude väljavoolust rahva alkoholiseerumiseni, meedia kolletumisest rehepapluseni.
Definitsioon
Sellel on sotsioloogias oma nimi ka. Ajadiagnoos, mis on vaste saksakeelsele Zeitdiagnose‘le.
Ajadiagnoos on ühiskonnateoreetilist alust omav ja prognoosiva suundumusega ja esseistliku iseloomuga sotsiaalse muutuse analüüs, mille eesmärk on jäädvustada uudset ajastuvaimu ning kirjeldadav ühiskonna üldiseid arengutendentse, trende, probleeme, nähtusi.
Milline on meie aja olemus ja kuidas see erineb eelmistest ajastutest?
Kriis
Sageli on diagnoosid ja analüüsid seotud mingi ühiskonna keskse elemendi kriisiga.
Näiteks moraalne kriis, demokraatia valitsemiskriis, heaoluriigi kriisi, ökoloogiline kriis, relativismi ja postpositivismi väljakutse teadusele jne.
Mõnikord on kirjeldusele lisatud ka normatiivne või praktiline osa ehk vastus küsimusele, mida sellele situatsioonile vastavalt tegema peaks.
Post
Varastest 80ndatest hakkasid aina sagedamini esile kerkima “post”-diagnoosid: postindustriaalne ühiskond, postmodernsus, post-ajalugu, tõejärgne ajastu. Mis kirjeldavad, et miski on möödas või surnud ja et “sellele järgnev” parasjagu algamas.
Plakatiivne Tuulenuusutamine?
žanrile meeldivad suured sõnad. Uue aja inimesi on kuulutatud nartsissistideks ning uut tüüpi loogikat, mis iseloomustab kõiki sotsiaalseid protsesse, muu hulgas “refleksiivseks moderniseerimiseks”. Me elame info-, tarbimis- või elamusühiskonnas, simulaakrumis või vedelas modernsuses.
Sellise analüüsi tugevus on siduda erinevaid sotsiaalseid ja kultuurilisi nähtusi ja näha nende aluseks olevat ühtsust. Selle žanri nõrkus aga see, et selle usaldusväärsus võib põhineda ainuüksi nende “maagiliste” kontseptsioonide sugestiivsusel. On üsna tüüpiline, et esitatud väidetel on vähe empiirilist alust (või puudub see täielikult).
Range teaduse mätta otsast ongi tegu spekulatsioonide, slõuganite ja siltidega, mis käsitlevad väga selektiivset osa ühiskonnast.
Rohkem kui teaduslikule teadmistele ja faktidele pööratakse tähelepanu komplekssete nähtuste lihtsustamisele ning sageli ka müüvale turundusele, mida püütakse saavutada trende tugevalt üle stiliseerides ning üksikuid asjaolusid epohhikatkestusteks üle puhudes.
Ajadiagnoosi tähtsaim roll on anda uut nägemust
Kuid osalt on see ka žanri sihilik püüdlus, et leida kuulajaid nii ekspertide seas kui ka sellest väljaspool. Ning selle eesmärgi nimel kasutataksegi teisi vahendeid kui range teaduse puhul. Oluline on, et sotsioloogilised leiud jõuaksid tee tagasi teadusest avalikkusesse.
Viimastel aastakümnetel on neil igatahes õnnestunud neil tekitada vastukaja, mida sotsioloogiline teoorialoome ja empiirilised sotsiaaluuringud enamasti ei suuda.
Seda žanri ei saagi taandada ei empiirilistele meetoditele ega teoreetilistele debattidele. Empiiriliste uuringute kõrval püüavad need anda „suurt pilti”. Nad on abstraktsiooniastmelt midagi keskmist, „suurte teooriate“ ja uuringute vahepealset.
.. ja siiski ka orienteerumisabi
Kuigi ideaalis on ka ajadiagnooside puhul on argumentatsiooni järjekindlus ja põhjenduste ratsionaalsus sama oluline kui meetodeid ja uurimistulemusi tutvustavas teadustöös, on kõige olulisem see, kas see annab meile uusi arusaamu, kaemusi ja nägemusi.
Midagi, millest meil on olnud vaid aimdus, argumentidest rääkimata. Eksistentsiaalset infot, mis aitab meil näha ajastu hinge kujundina või ühiskonna toimimist läbi kujundite.
Las nad siis olla – kas head või halvad uudised, mis aitavad meil kaasagses hetkes orienteeruda. Uus nägemus on ikka parem kui vana pimedus.
Veel artikleid
21. sajandi vaimsuse trendid
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Morning
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